traditional model

Encouraging movement for McCain today, as the momentary bump from Obama’s infomercial seems to be settling back down.

Still, Obama is above 50% in all three models and even if McCain manages to capture 60% of undecideds, Obama will still get at least 54% of the popular vote if you look at the expanded likely and registered models.

In the expanded traditional model, he’d still get 53%.

Registered Voters: Obama +11

We’re now at double digits in all models, and I think this is the first time we’ve seen this.

Not only that, Obama is at a solid 52% in every model as well.

Things are looking increasingly grim for McCain.

Registered Voters: Obama +11

Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +10

All good movement today for Obama, and I can’t help but think this is linked to his infomerical on Wednesday.

The biggest news here I think is that Obama is up by 8 in Gallup’s traditional model, with Obama hitting his high of 51% and McCain hitting his low of 43%.

That’s extremely bad news for McCain.

What’s more, Obama is above 50% in every model, so the likelihood of McCain turning it around at this point is quickly becoming nonexistent.

Obama drops a big net 3 points today in all the models, but still maintains a sizeable lead in two of them.

However, with the margin narrowing in Rasmussen’s poll too, we could be seeing a last minute tightening after McCain’s attacks on spreading the wealth.

Registered Voters: Obama +7

Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +7

Obama gains 1 in the registered and likely expanded models, but loses a net 2 points in the traditional model.

Still, he hasn’t fallen below 50% in any of these models, so all of the trends still suggest an easy Obama win in 9 days.

The numbers…

Registered Voters: Obama +10

More bad news for McCain today as he’s now below 45% in all the models.

At this point in the race, McCain has to start making really big gains to catch up, but it’s just not happening.

And much like Rasmussen suggested, the word for today is “stability.”

The numbers…

McCain lose one in all three models today as he continues to not be able to maintain any sort of support above that 45% threshold.

That’s a BIG problem because what this means is undecided voters probably won’t break big for him.

On the other hand, Obama has been at or above 50% consistently throughout the past two months, and so the late shift among undecideds could actually go his way.

Here are the numbers…

McCain gains one and Obama loses one, and now the Rasmussen and Gallup polls show a very similar story.

From here on in, I’ll post the numbers like this: Registered, Likely Expanded, Likely Traditional.

That way everybody will get a gauge of how all of Gallup’s models are shaking out.

And, by the way, I’m not exactly sure why Gallup just doesn’t decide on one model and go with that, but here we are nonetheless…

Obama loses one and McCain gains one, the exact opposite of what happened in the Rasmussen poll.

But the biggest story all around is Obama maintains a significant lead among registered and likely voters.

No change from yesterday to today in the registered voter numbers…

But in the likely voter models, he’s starting to gain ground.

First, the traditional model shows him ahead by 7.

Then, the expanded model shows him ahead by 10.