ronald reagan

I’ve got morning errands that need to be taken care of, so detailed analysis will have to wait, however I find myself very much in agreement with the substance of what Leslie Carbone says in this post:

Why?

Because there’s no way they’ll match history…

With the final national polls settling around Obama +7, I realized that I lacked a good sense of historical context for that number.

Turns out it’s about the margin of George H.W. Bush’s 1988 win against Michael Dukakis: 53.4% to 45.6%.

Obama - 52%
McCain - 46%

Obama gains one today, and I think it’s pretty clear from every single indicator out there that he has this thing locked up.

Not only that, it looks like he’ll actually get a majority of the vote, and that hasn’t happened for a Dem in over 30 years.

Some good and bad movement for both candidates today, but the biggest pro-Obama movement comes in the model where McCain was closest.

Perhaps the past couple days were just a momentary blip?

Because it doesn’t look like McCain has been able to keep any sort of advantage he gained.

Registered Voters: Obama +8

Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +7

Obama gains 1 in the registered model and likely expanded model, and maintains his 5 point lead in the traditional likely model.

What’s more, he has hit the 53% mark in the expanded likely model, and there are no signs of McCain even coming close to making a dent in his lead.

The numbers…

Registered Voters: Obama +10

Frankly, I’m shocked to see so many Republicans essentially throwing in the towel, but I can understand.

They realize that McCain has run an awful campaign, has no time left to come back and picked a laughably bad candidate for his second in command who, stunningly, makes George Bush look studied.

Trust me, Republicans are deeply embarrassed over the Palin pick, regardless of what they’re saying post-debate.

No movement today as the post convention bounce remains steady for McCain.

McCain makes fun of Obama and compares him to God, Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.

Obama answers by pointing out how McCain doesn’t really know very much about economics.

Ambinder thinks is Bush’s doing:

A potential objection: that old canard, that young people are liberal and become more conservative?

The historical data doesn’t support it. When Bill Clinton was elected, a plurality of people under 30 identified themselves as Republicans.

Same thing when Ronald Reagan was elected.