gallup

Obama gains 1 in the registered and likely expanded models, but loses a net 2 points in the traditional model.

Still, he hasn’t fallen below 50% in any of these models, so all of the trends still suggest an easy Obama win in 9 days.

The numbers…

Registered Voters: Obama +10

Obama loses one and McCain gains one, the exact opposite of what happened in the Rasmussen poll.

But the biggest story all around is Obama maintains a significant lead among registered and likely voters.

McCain drops one today to give Obama his biggest lead to date in the Gallup tracking…

Obama is also widening his lead in the likely voters models…

By almost two to one…

And favorability is always an important metric to look at post-debate.

Here are the numbers for Obama…

And Mccain’s…

Obama loses one and McCain gains one to pull this race a little closer.

However, Obama has been leading by at least 7 points for 10 days now, and with one debate left I have to wonder if there’s really anything significant that can happen to turn it around for McCain.

McCain gains one today, but he has been under the 45% mark for 15 straight days now.

Gallup talks trends…

Obama has led McCain by close to 10 points for each of the past six days, and by a statistically significant margin of at least four points for more than two weeks.

While Rasmussen shows the race tightening the past couple days, Gallup has done nothing but trend up. Who’s right?

My guess is it’s probably closer to Rasmussen’s 5 point lead, but given the likelihood of increased turnout this election, I’d say Obama is probably closer to 7 points ahead of McCain right now.

He’s pulling away and I can’t help but think that debate last night will help him widen the gap even more.

Now Rasmussen and Gallup show the exact same spread, albeit it with different numbers. And McCain can’t like that he is now back down to 42%.

He just can’t get a break.

The only bright spot in this is that Obama still hasn’t gone over the 50% mark yet, so McCain could still get all the remaining voters, but that’s obviously HIGHLY unlikely.

Obama - 51%
McCain - 44%

McCain drops one today, and you can bet that his campaign is in full on panic mode.

Why?

Well, this 7 point lead is the biggest Obama has ever had in Rasmussen’s polling, and Rasmussen’s numbers are the most stable since they poll likely voters and have a bigger sample than Gallup.